I suspect that this will have a more dramatic impact on leisure than business customers, and will probably encourage more of the former to get in their car rather than fork out more for a rail fare.

What the overall impact on income will be is anyone's guess, but it certainly suggests that in the newly nationalised railway world the concept of "value for money" will be in the context of the Government rather than the customer.

 
In answer to a question I was asked yesterday - Where have all the cheap "Advanced Fares" gone?

"Advance Purchase" train tickets - bought ahead of time, only valid on a specified train, and not refundable or changeable were introduced a number of years ago (20 - 30 years?) by the Train Operating Companies. They are offered in limited quantities at a range of prices - cheaper on the least popular trains.   There are no fewer that 46 standard class single fares from Melksham To London, ranging from £19 single to £129 single and a similar first class range.  These are not "regulated" fares; quotas and prices can be changed at any time prior to purchase, though of course GWR will honour tickets sold once your purchase is confirmed.  The model is a similar one to that used by the airline industry, and is typically available for medium and long distance journeys.  Discounts such as railcards apply, so these tickets can be purchased with a third off by many of us.

Full range of Melksham (MKM) to London (PAD) tickets at https://www.brfares.com/!fares?orig=MKM&dest=PAD&period=20260301

It's now far harder to find an attractive low price fare than it was a few years ago.  Why?  Here are some background reasons:

1. Advance fares in their current form were introduced to help fill empty seats some 20 to 30 years ago. Over that time, train journeys in the UK have doubled and there are no longer the empty seats to fill. There are more trains and (on some) more seats, but that has not grown as much as the travelling numbers.

2. Fare money that is specific to a particular train has gone to the franchise operator (from 2006 in Melksham, First Group as Great Western Railway).  Arrangements such as "cap and collar" limited profiteering and supported the company if they made a loss.  But things changed, and these days all the money goes direct to the government, with GWR (First) being paid a management and operating fee and advance tickets no longer are a financial benefit to them over flexible tickets

3. Advance purchase fares have become the "go to" lower cost way of travelling for many people. Friends who work remotely but are London based will plan a day or two in the office well ahead, and will buy ahead of time putting up with some inconvenient timing to save money, in a way they would not do on a daily commute. They sell out quickly if they are available at all

4. It has been noted that people may complain at the higher pricing, but they will pay. And the rail industry needs the money (discussion point in high politics itself). Just because "trains are being nationalised" does not mean that the books don't need to balance!  To a very great extent, the train operating companies are the scapegoats of the system - blames for higher fares when the UK's high fares compared to other countries comes down to national policy.

5. When there are engineering works going on, and trains are thinned, diverted or replaces by buses, capacity is less and fewer if any advance fares are offered.

6. Rail income per passenger mile has dropped; fewer commuters, more people working from home, less "any time" tickets sold.  People using split tickets and being more able to choose the right and best ticket online through multiple outlets. And reducing the Advance quota at low price levels is a way to pump up income.

7. The big "Fares are Frozen this year" announcement - sorry - it does not mean that you won't be paying more.  The freeze is on regulated fares, which these days are less than half the tickets sold - many but not all "walk up" fares.  In my view, an easy marketing line because there are so many other tickets and quotas not regulated, and in a number of cases, other terms and conditions change which render the previous "best value" tickets no longer such good value.  For example, a change from 09:00 to 09:30 for groupsave may felt technical, but it put the price up 50% for a group going out for the day from Melksham to Salisbury on the 09:10. That is a historic example - I don't know is planned for this year in detail. In other areas, return tickets are no longer sold and you have to buy two singles - but we are moving away from the original question here!

In summary - the rail industry requires a greater income, and one of the ways it's generating it is by cutting the availability of lower priced advance fares. The system does help with load balancing, but do not expect to see the average price you pay come down - or even be frozen this year.  Do not expect to see a financial encouragement toward train travel, although fares are unlikely to go up at the rate that fuel prices for cars might rise in a continued oil / environmental crisis.

This report is written from my understanding - and has to be "errors and omissions excepted". You need to check back with the train operator or industry enquiry source to confirm details, though at times they are very coy about some of the best value ways to travel.  Written by Graham Ellis - graham@sn12.net - chair of Melksham Transport User Group.  I am retired and welcome local enquiries about trains and buses